Will China Launch a War to Taiwan?
China’s president Xi Jinping released a speech to Taiwanese about peaceful unification on 2, January. He reiterated “one country, two systems” formula was best Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen said Taiwan never accepted “one country, two systems”. In fact, this approach is not innovative and runs through it all amid the decision on Taiwan issue of China’s government. However, as the first public speech to Taiwan since Xi Jinping took the power, it is reasonable to infer China speeds up the schedule of unification in accordance with its tongue. Furthermore, the violent mean has never been abandoned by China. Therefore, a crucial question suggests whether China is ready to unify Taiwan. If so, will war happen and when is the time.
In order to answer these questions, it had better trace back to the election which made the Democratic Progressive Party become a ruling party. The cross-Straits relation suffered a heavy setback for a while due to the pro-independence party denied 1992 Consensus. No matter in official or civil relations, both sides reduced connections. Such as, China shrank the scales of visitors and visiting students to Taiwan. In the foreign affairs, an unprecedented force was used to cut off Taiwan’s diplomatic allies. By far, the number of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies have dropped down to 17. Even in the business affairs, China continued to warm and punish airlines and transnational companies to refer to Taiwan as a part of it. What’s worse, China’s military fighter jets and warships drilled and sighted near the island. On the other hand, the soft means are working. 31 professional and economic incentives and teaching qualifications in elementary and middle schools were opened to Taiwanese citizens.
Another noticeable matter is the America’s role between China and Taiwan. Taiwan’s future is determined by peaceful means in Taiwan Relations Act which was enacted by American congress in 1979. Even though America has established diplomatic relations with China for nearly 40 years, president Trump’s unexpected behaviors indicate the uncertainty of cross Straits relations. At first, Trump got a phone call from Tsai Ing-wen at the end of 2016. Then, a series of provisions which upgrade America and Taiwan’s relations came out. They include mutual port calls by naval vessels from both sides, mutual visits between high-level officials from both sides, and a regular sell of arms to Taiwan. It can say that the relations between US and Taiwan are at the best time since split.
Meanwhile, Tsai Ing-wen showed active and strong stance. She recently called for international community’s support to defend democracy and balance China’s expansion.
Giving the above, the article argues China determines whether the conflicts will occur or not. Three key factors must be stressed. First of all, it is China’s economic and political situations. The slowdown of economic speed , the aging population, the long-term debts of infrastructure, and especially the hopeless political reform lead to a deteriorating society. Nationalism, hence, is very easy to become a mean to relieve problems. Second, it is the resolution of America and its allies. Whether they are willing to stabilize the Taiwan Strait. Currently, it is doubtful that they reach consensus. At least, American’s allies have not showed such determination. And the last one is Taiwan’s internal struggles between unification and independence. More than two identifications exist in Taiwan for a long time. The attitude to China depends on Taiwanese’s defense of Taiwan or Republic of China. The more important thing is that once the conflict occurs, how long can Taiwan resist? A variety of factors can affect China’s decision to war and the above three factors may be the most significant. It is less possible to see the conflicts between Taiwan and China currently, but such chance gets larger in future.
